Election latest: Sunak tipped to guide his party to near wipe out across the country (2024)

YouGov's final election poll for Sky News (see previous post) paints a bleak national picture for the Tories.

They would become a party predominantly of the South East, South West and East of England.

They would face near wipe out in the North East, North West and Wales, areas where Boris Johnson fared much better.

The YouGov projection implies vote shares of Labour on 39%, Conservatives on 22%, Reform on 15%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 7%, SNP on 3%, Plaid on 1%, and others on 2%, near identical from the previous YouGov MRP two weeks ago.

The YouGov projection suggests a significant number of the Tories most prominent politicians are set to lose their seats.

Of the 16 cabinet ministers, this includes Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash, who is projected to lose to the Liberal Democrats; and Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and potential leadership contender in Welwyn Hatfield, who could lose to Labour.

There is also Richard Holden, the Tory party chair who could lose in Basildon and Billericay, also to Labour; and Penny Mordaunt, leader of the Commons, another leadership contender who could again lose Portsmouth North to Labour.

Labour's Thangam Debbonaire could be the only member of the Starmer cabinet team to lose their seat, with her Bristol Central seat potentially going to the Greens.

Labour is on course for landslide victory in Thursday's election with a 212-seat majority, according to YouGov's final MRP poll.

Sir Keir Starmer's party is set for 431 seats, beating the 419 won in 1997 and the highest number in its history.

It's also more than double the 202 Labour won in 2019, and It would give them the biggest majority for any single party since 1832.

The Tories are projected to win just 102 - down more than two-thirds on how many they secured under Boris Johnson last time out.

It's also way down on the 165 they won in 1997, when they lost to a landslide win for Tony Blair.

Among the big name Conservatives set to lose their seats are former party leader Iain Duncan Smith and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

The total seat counts for the main parties are:

• Labour - 431
• Conservatives - 102
• Lib Dems - 72
• SNP - 18
• Reform - three
• Greens - two

Under the pollster’s margin of error, Labour's seat count could range from 391 to 466 and the Tories from 78 to 129.

The Lib Dems could range from 57 to 87, while the SNP range from eight to 34, Reform from zero to 14, Greens one to four, and Plaid one to four.

The pollster interviewed 42,758 voters from 19 June to 2 July.

Newspaper endorsem*nts don't have the impact they once had, but this afternoon's announcement from The Sun that it would back Labour is certainly symbolic.

It makes Sir Keir Starmer the party's first leader to earn the tabloid's support since Tony Blair in 2005.

Sir Keir has welcomed the news, saying: "I'm delighted to have the support and the backing of The Sun.

"I think that shows just how much this is a changed Labour Party back in the service of working people."

Our political correspondent Matthew Thompson is on theLiberal Democrats' election campaign battle bus ahead of Sir Ed Davey's final campaign stunt.

He says there is "one more thing left in Ed Davey's box of tricks".

"We think it will be something eye-catching," he says.

He goes on to say "it will happen within the next hour".

"There are a few scratchy throats on this bus and enough throat pastilles here to open up our own branch of Boots," he adds.

"There are few people quite relieved that we are near the end."

The closer we get to polling day, the more inevitable a huge Labour landslide victory seems.

Multiple polls are projecting even bigger victories than the one the party enjoyed under Tony Blair in 1997.

But a survey by YouGov today suggests those intending to back Labour this time round aren't doing so with much enthusiasm.

Just 5% of Labour voters are doing so because they agree with their policies and only 1% because of Sir Keir Starmer's leadership.

Almost half - 48% - say their primary reason for backing Labour is to remove the Tories from office.

You can see the full breakdown below:

Rishi Sunak has spoken to broadcasters as he continues to make his final pitch to the nation before polls open tomorrow.

It was put to him that his former home secretary, Suella Braverman, has said the Tories needs to prepare for opposition, while his work and pensions secretary, Mel Stride, has said Labour is likely to win a landslide.

Asked if he is the only person left who still thinks he has a chance, the prime minister replied: "No. Every vote matters tomorrow."

Mr Sunak claimed some seats were so close that "just 130,000 people could chance the outcome of the election".

He denied the Tories were trying to scare people into voting for them with their attacks on Labour, and said all Mr Stride was trying to do this morning was point out the "dangers" of giving Sir Keir Starmer's party a "blank cheque to do what they want".

"I appreciate people have frustrations with our party," he said, but urged voters to "think about what a Labour government would mean for your family" when voting tomorrow.

"I am proud this campaign has shone a spotlight on Labour's plans to raise people's taxes," he added.

Mr Sunak vowed to "keep going to the last second" - the polls open at 7am tomorrow morning and close at 10pm.

The day before polls open, The Sun newspaper has finally announced its endorsem*nt - and said it is backing the Labour Party at this election.

It is not exactly a wholehearted endorsem*nt, but the newspaper makes the case that the Tories can no longer govern, while Sir Keir Starmer has got his party back to a place where they can lead the country forward.

"It is time for change," the paper says, echoing Labour's slogan, as it calls for the "exhausted" Tories to face "a period in opposition".

The Sun dismisses Reform as a "one-man band" and the Lib Dems as a "joke" best known for Sir Ed Davey's "ridiculous stunts".

Of the Labour leader, the paper said: "By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in No10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge."

Our chief political correspondent Jon Craig acknowledges plenty of people say newspaper endorsem*nts "don't matter as much as they used to", but says this is a "big boost" for Labour.

"I remember being with some senior figures in 2010 when The Sun came out for David Cameron, and there was gloom among the Labour high command back then," Jon recalls.

"Labour will be delighted - the Tories will probably not be that surprised."

A second major poll in 24 hours has forecast a bigger Labour landslide than 1997.

The Tories would face their worst ever defeat with upsets for several cabinet ministers, according to More in Common.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and veterans minister Johnny Mercer were forecast to lose their seats in the poll of 13,556 adults for The News Agents podcast.

More In Common has listed Portsmouth North, which former Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt is contesting, as "too close to call".

More in Common forecast:

• Labour: 430 seats on 39.3% of the vote (Tony Blair won 418);
• Conservatives: 126 on 22.7%;
• Liberal Democrats: 52 on 13.5% (up from 11);
• SNP: 16 (slashed from 48);
• Reform UK: Two on 13.1%;
• Plaid Cymru: Two seats;
• Green: At least one seat.

Labour is set for one upset - Islington North, where Jeremy Corbyn has a 91% chance of winning.

A poll by Survation yesterday evening said Labour were 99% certain to beat the landslide win secured by Tony Blair in 1997.

Our live poll tracker collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations - and allows you to see how the political parties are performing in the run-up to the general election.

With just 24 hours to go, the Tories and Labour have taken a drop, while support for Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats is on the rise.

Read more about the trackerhere.

"I was supposed to parachute in," jokes Sir Ed Davey as he addresses supporters in Hampshire, his second stop of the day.

Campaigning alongside vet and Winchester candidate Danny Chambers, Sir Ed says: "We've got the pet vote, and the farm animal vote, all sewn up."

He continues: "This is a once in a century election. A chance where we can change the political geography of our nation, and in doing that, I want us to become a caring nation."

As the event winds down, he apologises for keeping his supporters waiting: "An hour?! I'm so sorry - I blame the Tories."

The full list of candidates running in Winchester include:

• Chris Barfoot, independent;
• Danny Chambers, Lib Dems;
• Kevin D'Cruze, independent;
• Andrew Davis, Social Democratic Party;
• Hannah Dawson, Labour;
• Flick Drummond, Conservatives.